How much of an outlier was India's win over Australia in the 2025 World Cup?

India chased a world record total of 338 to sprint past Australia in the semifinals of the 2025 World Cup. Out of 157 chases, 92 resulted in victories for India.

So this should have been a cake walk for India, right?

Wrong!

Why? Let's take a look at India's successful chases over the last 15 years.

Trend line representing India top 10 successful chases before the semifinal win

Trend line representing India's top 10 successful chases before the semifinal win

Until the victory in the semifinals, India's highest ever successful chase was 264 against Australia in 2021. This was also the first ever time that India had chased a total of over 250 against any opposition

It remained the only victorious chase over 250 against Australia until the semifinal win

Out of 92 victories for India batting second, only 20 (~22%) involved chasing a score of 200 or more
Including the semifinal win, India had chased a score over 250 only 4 times in its entire history
Until the 2017 World Cup final, India had chased a score of over 230 only once

Hence this win over Australia was not only a massive upset but also a gigantic outlier as illustrated on the above graph.

Did Australia read too much into these stats and take it easy once a large score was on the cards?

I don't know for sure but once they were ahead they did surrender some of their advantage with some pretty ordinary batting. Here are some examples:

Phoebe Litchfield's switch hit which resulted in her stumps getting rattled thereby offering respite to the Indian bowlers who were desperately searching for answers to stem the momentum AND
Ashleigh Gardner's nonchalant runout while she was putting Indian bowlers to sword. That dismissal was central to Australia slowing down in the death overs

Bottomline, India punched way above their weight. A combination of home conditions plus experience of chasing over 400 against the same opponent must have helped. Whatever might be the case, this win was one for the ages.

Until Next Time,

Your sports raconteur.

Comments

Zamarrud Theatre Hyderabad

More than two decades ago a 5 year old boy (yours truly) found himself in Abids which was certainly then the microcosm of Hyderabad. Abids in the 80s <Courtesy: OkaTeluguAbbayi > The occasion was a family outing to Zamarrud Cinema. And we are stepping out for not just any movie my friends, my parents decided that nothing less than the Raj Kapoor blockbuster Chori Chori was good enough for us. To be honest I wasn't exactly enthused about watching a black and white film of a bygone era even though the movie had all the credentials of a classic. But that was before I saw Zamarrud, the theatre where the movie was being played. Nested in the heart of Abids, Zamarrud was the perfect amalgamation of Hyderabad's old world charm and new fangled ways. Zamarrud was not just any theatre, it was one of the first air conditioned halls in Hyderabad, a premiere cinema hall which used to host the best of what the film industry had to offer and the place to go for Hyderabad...

Mahabharata by C.Rajagopalachari

There are books which you read and then there are books which make you read them and change your life. Chakravarthi Rajagopalachari's (Rajaji's) Mahabharata belongs to the latter category. Mahabharata introduced me to the joy of reading books as a kid and today I couldn't have picked a better topic for my 25th post. I cannot describe what a pleasure and honor it is to extol the virtues of this classic book during this holy festive season of Makar Sankranti . Mahabharata by C.Rajagopalachari The story of Mahabharata is as old as the mountains and has been retold several times. Mahabharata by Rajaji however stands out in my mind because here is a story which is spiritual yet not religious, is thought provoking yet not preachy, is compelling yet not tedious. The story left an indelible impression upon me for several reasons which are: Rajaji uses extremely simple language to convey some of the finer aspects of the saga. I was 10 years old when I read Mahabharata ...

A walk along the Ocean - Stanley Park Seawall

On a bright May afternoon I found myself on the Stanley Park Seawall in Vancouver facing the Pacific Ocean . This was the ocean hike that I was most looking forward to. Now before I go any further you might ask me. What is the Seawall? There you go, the picture below should answer your question very well 👇 Stanley Park Seawall (Courtesy: Tourism Vancouver) How did I get there? Simple via public transport ( TransLink ). In front of me was a 10 KM hike right next to the Pacific Ocean and I was grossly unprepared (didn't even have a bottle of water with me). But water or no water I wasn't about to back out from exploring this beautiful waterfront trail . My first pit stop allowed me to take in the sights of Vancouver downtown along with the docks . Vancouver Downtown Vancouver docks and the Pan Pacific Hotel Pan Pacific Hotel from the top (Courtesy: BC Ferries Vacations) The next sight to behold my attention was the 100 year old Brockton P...

The Punisher (2004)

There are very few movies which make for a fun repeat watch. The 2004 version of ' The Punisher ' belongs to this rarefied category. I watched the movie almost 10 years ago and then caught up with it again last month. The plot twists were familiar the second time around but the fun was still the same. That's what probably got me started off on this movie review. Tom Jane as 'The Punisher' The Plot: When the younger son of mafia boss Howard Saint ( John Travolta ) gets killed in an FBI operation headed by Frank Castle ( Tom Jane ), Saint swears revenge and wipes out Castle's entire family. Castle himself barely survives before emerging from his injuries as the crusading 'Punisher'. 'The Punisher' resolves to extract payback from Saint and proceeds to punish everyone on the wrong side of law with his brand of justice. Will 'The Punisher' succeed (Of course he does)? Watch this lesser talked about installment from the Marvel Cinematic Un...

Black Eagle (1988)

I have a soft corner in my heart for the action films of the eighties . I am also a huge fan of movies where stars are cast against type ( see Vera Cruz ). So, when I got a chance to watch 1988's Black Eagle pitting international action star Jean-Claude Van Damme as the 'villain' against acclaimed martial arts guru Sho Kosugi , I just couldn't let it pass by. Black Eagle 1988 Plot When a US F-111 jet carrying a laser tracking device goes missing in the Mediterranean, agent Ken Tani (Sho Kosugi) code-named ' Black Eagle ' is summoned to retrieve the device before the Soviet KGB acquires it. Ken unwillingly lands in Malta and is immediately targeted by Soviet Agent Andrei (Jean-Claude Van Damme). Will Ken acquire the tracking device? Who wins? (Guess that answer is obvious!) The Cliches Cliches are the life and soul of action movies. When you have a martial arts movie in the spy genre those cliches only double. So here are all the noteworthy cli...

Life Etc Etc

Search This Blog