Wimbledon 2023 Final: How good did Novak have to be?

Wimbledon 2023 final is done and we have a new champion nullifying all the pre-tournament predictions. In a thrilling merry-go-round of a match, the young contender, Carlos Alcaraz took down the reigning king of Center Court, Novak Djokovic.

Carlos Alcaraz after second set tie-break <Courtesy: Wimbledon>

The decade long undefeated streak of Novak in which he took on all comers is finally over. But how good did Novak really have to be in order to maintain his supremacy at Wimbledon? Let's take a look at the stats and facts pertaining to his grand slam exploits since the pandemic:

Won six out of the eleven grand slams he contested
Reached nine grand slam finals (including Wimbledon 2023)
Lost only four grand slam matches since the pandemic (not counting the disqualification loss at US Open 2020)

Rafael Nadal contributed to two of those defeats while Daniil Medvedev and Carlos Alcaraz were the victors on the other two occasions

All of the defeats except the most recent one to Alcaraz came in slams which are traditionally regarded as Novak's weakest

Now, let's also ponder upon the level of competition he's been facing at Wimbledon since the pandemic:

Djokovic didn't have to face a single grand slam winner while winning each of the last two Wimbledons

Federer was defeated before he could meet Novak in 2021 while Nadal bowed out with an injury in the last edition of Wimbledon
He faced two grand slams champions (Stan Wawrinka and Carlos Alcaraz) at The Championships this year

Only two players (Kevin Anderson and Nick Kyrgios) he faced over the course of the last two Wimbledons have managed to win a match in their career against him
Dominic Thiem, Alexander Zverev, Daniil Medvedev and Stefanos Tsitsipas all hold multiple victories over Novak but none of them have passed the 4th round of Wimbledon until Medvedev reached the semifinals this year

With a majority of the top 10 players still finding their feet on grass and three of 'The Big Four' no longer being there in the later rounds to deter him, how hard did Novak Djokovic need to work in order to retain his grass court dominance over the last 3 years?

I know you can only beat the players who are put in front of you but even with limited opposition last year he did end up losing sets to 5 out of the 7 players he faced on route to the title. Novak didn't have to be spectacular in order to walk away with the title last year. When the going got tough he just dug his heels in, waiting to capitalize once the other player's form inevitably dipped. In many ways Alcaraz gave him a taste of his own medicine in this year's final. He navigated a rough first set when Djokovic was in imperious form, found his game and then started executing his plans in the second. Djokovic had to work a lot harder in order to win points and once that happens the errors start trickling in. 40 unforced errors emanated from his racquet while that number was only 17 in the 2022 final.

There was a lot of talk about how Novak doesn't wilt under pressure but would the cool head have prevailed if he was playing someone who could dig themselves back from a hole and then back him up with the weapons they have? Case in point: US Open 2016 final between Stan Wawrinka and Novak Djokovic.

His unwavering self-belief is often lauded. Would he have the same self-belief to recover from a two set deficit against Sinner in Wimbledon 2022, if Sinner had beaten him before?

None of this is meant to dampen the luster of Novak's achievements. I only wanted to point out that Alcaraz didn't abandon his game plan when the going got tough and more importantly didn't lose his self-belief. He stayed the course and kept pushing Djokovic with 66 winners. But he's also an exception in an era where there aren't too many players who raise their game across all surfaces.

So finally, how good does Novak really have to be when there aren't too many deterrents that would force him to change his style of play?

Let me know your thoughts!

Until Next Time,

Your next-door tennis enthusiast,

Chaitanya J.J.

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