India chased a world record total of 338 to sprint past Australia in the semifinals of the 2025 World Cup. Out of 157 chases, 92 resulted in victories for India. So this should have been a cake walk for India, right? Wrong! Why? Let's take a look at India's successful chases over the last 15 years. Trend line representing India's top 10 successful chases before the semifinal win Until the victory in the semifinals, India's highest ever successful chase was 264 against Australia in 2021. This was also the first ever time that India had chased a total of over 250 Out of 92 victories for India batting second, only 20 (~22%) involved chasing a score of 200 or more Including the semifinal win, India had chased a score over 250 only 4 times in its entire history Hence the win over Australia was not only a massive upset but also a gigantic outlier as illustrated on the above graph. Did Australia read too much into these stats and take it easy once a large score was on th...
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