In my previous blog we arrived at a ratio (Total no. of medals won at the Asian Games)/(Total no. of medals won at Olympics) which correlated the performance of the Asian games with the Olympics that occurred in the same four year cycle.
We found out that India's ratio of 17.83 was at the bottom of the list (remember a lower ratio points to a greater ability to reproduce one's Asian Games performance on the Olympic stage) when we considered the top ranking nations at Asian Games.
But one question remained unanswered, was this the greatest disparity between Asian Games and Olympics as far as India was concerned? I dove straight into the medal tallies from the previous century to dig up the answer to my question.
The graph brought about several interesting observations:
The graph brought about several interesting observations:
- Until 2008 Olympics, India's performance at the 1952 Helsinki games (with 2 medals) was its best ever so was the medal tally at the first ever Asian Games in 1951. Such a thundering feat is often difficult to repeat on the global stage ensuing a lackluster ratio of 25.5
- In 1956 and 1960, the Olympic returns remained steady but the Asian Games accomplishments tanked. India's medal returns in 1954 Manila(17) and 1958 Tokyo (13) are the worst ever in its Asian Games history. Thus sub-par returns at the continental level and a single medal win in 1960 Rome Olympics ensured a new low of 13 which would not be surpassed until the 2012 games
- During the 60s and early 70s, India had steady but unspectacular performances at the Asian Games while the Olympic acts were increasingly confined to solitary medals which meant that the ratio hovered around the 20 - 30 range
- After the steady period came the late 70s, 80s and early 90s which were a period of true decline in Indian sport. The one bright spot during this time was the record breaking medal haul (57) at the 1982 Asian Games but you won't see this number reflected anywhere on the graph because of the blank drawn at the 84 Olympics
- The first signs of a sporting comeback came in the late 90s when medal tallies at the continental games started improving and India also started posting solo gains at Olympics after years of not winning medals. This continued until the 2006 Doha games where India churned out its second best ever medal tally (53). This combined with the three medals at the 2008 Beijing Olympics brought the ratio down to below 20 for the first time in almost 50 years
- The record breaking spree continued. Both the 2010 Guangzhou games (65) and 2012 London Olympics (6) set best ever medal milestones resulting in a new low of 10.83. This value too was ultimately surpassed (10) when India accumulated 7 and 70 medals respectively at 2020 Tokyo Olympics and 2018 Jakarta games respectively
- The only blip during this time came in the period post London Olympics. The 2014 Incheon games (57) couldn't meet the lofty standards set at 2010 Guangzhou games while the 2016 Rio Olympics can be categorized as near close to washout with only two medals
Thus performance at the Asian Games has been more or less an indicator of how well India does at Olympics except in the case of 1982 Asian Games. If you consider ratios, the 2024 Paris Olympics would rank as India's fifth best ever. But, if you also take into account India's best ever haul at 2022 Hangzhou games then this Olympics cycle would rank as the third best behind 2020 and 2012 cycles. While an argument can be made that Indian sport is not growing at the rate that we are all envisioning, this analysis also conclusively proves that Indian sport is not going downhill. Its actually cementing its status as a continental juggernaut even though the path to global sporting superiority remains unclear.
Until Next Time,
Your Olympic Analyst
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