Italian Open 2021 Final: To Break or not to Break

Italian Open Final: Third Set, One set All, Two games all and 30-40 in favor of Djokovic

Djokovic had Nadal in all sorts of trouble forcing him to retrieve a down the line shot. Nadal could only get a one handed backhand to it, the ball looped up into air with Djokovic setting himself up for a crosscourt forehand smash. Djokovic never misses shots like these, I certainly expected him to make it but Tennis Gods probably had other plans for him.

Nole's safe hands deserted him as he promptly deposited the ball into the net. It was a lucky reprieve for Rafa and I remember telling my father that the shot could probably cost Nole the championship. In half an hour's time my words would be vindicated as Rafa found his form and thundered away to his 10th championship at Foro Italico.

This wasn't the first time I seemed to read the minds of tennis gods, my words would prove fatal in the semifinal too. Lorenzo Sonego was about to complete a remarkable turnaround with three break points in the opening stages of the crucial third set against Novak Djokovic. When Sonego wasted the first of those points with an overcooked forehand I remember telling my father once again, "If he wastes these points, he will not survive the match", and lo-behold that's just what happened.

After years of watching tennis, have I acquired certain special powers to predict a where match is going?

Have I opened up a direct communication channel with tennis gods to change the outcome of matches with my words?

The answer to all of the above questions is an 'Emphatic No'. I am extremely happy to not have any such special powers. But there definitely seems to be a correlation between inability to close out a break and then losing one's own service. I don't have stats to prove my theory but this doesn't seem to be an infrequent occurrence especially if you consider matches from the last two-three years.

What are your thoughts? Do let me know in your comments?

Until Next Time,

Your Tennis Buff,

Chaitanya J.J.

PS: As far as who will win at the French Open? It's pretty simple, one who breaks the most will win and the one who struggles will need help from the tennis gods. Now no one can argue with the validity of that prediction.

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